The Welsh red meat industry is hoping that the positive position generated by current industry supply and demand trends will extend into the all-important festive season.
“The signs are there: it’s still early of course, but there can be some optimism for another good Christmas for quality red meat,” said Glesni Phillips, Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) Intelligence, Analysis & Business Insight executive.
“Volume sales of lamb for the year to date are up 4% on the year, which is very positive for the sector - and encourage hopes of a good festive season for Welsh red meat,” said Phillips.
Looking across the market in detail, Glesni reported: “Supply continues to be down. Data from Defra for sheep throughput up to September 2024 shows a 9% decrease compared to last year, with a total of 9.3 million sheep processed. Both lamb and adult sheep numbers are contributing to this decline.
“Lamb throughput is down 8%, despite slight peaks in January and February. Due to an estimated smaller lamb crop this year, a tighter supply was to be expected, but current numbers are even lower than expected.”
She said monthly throughput levels have not surpassed the million-head mark in any of the first nine months of 2024, suggesting that new season lambs have been slow to come forward: “UK abattoirs have processed 4.48 million lambs from the current lamb crop so far - a significant 9% drop from year-earlier levels.”
This tightening of supply has helped to maintain price levels. “The GB prime lamb deadweight average price remains firmly above the £6/kilo mark, despite seven consecutive weeks of downward price movements,” Phillips continued. “The most recent average stands some 8% higher than year-earlier levels at 618.5p/kg.”
Kantar consumer data for the 12-week period ending 29th September shows that lamb volume sales remained stable, up 0.5% on the year, driven by a 5% increase in existing shoppers buying more. Grocery price inflation, while lower than its peak, rose slightly to 2% in this quarterly period but had not seemed to impact on shopper’s determination to buy their favourite red meat cuts.
HCC’s Market Bulletin can be found here.
