The UK food-to-go market is predicted to be worth £23.4 billion by 2027, 26% more than pre-pandemic levels, according to the new forecast from the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD).
According to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), ‘food-to-go’ is defined as products that are ordered or bought at a counter and delivered with minimum customer service. The product will be a portable single portion, designed for out-of-home consumption and not served on a plate, the packaging will usually be disposable.
The food-to-go sector includes specialists, for example burger, chicken and pizza take-away shops. Convenience stores and supermarkets are also a large part of this market.
This year, the UK food-to-go channel will be worth £18.9 billion, 3% more than its pre-Covid value in 2019. IGD said that the market has performed better than predicted since the pandemic, but this will slow by the end of the year and throughout 2023 as consumers battle rising energy, fuel and food costs.
Senior analyst for food-to-go at IGD and author of the forecasts, Nicola Knight, explained: “Inflation is already affecting many consumers but until now food-to-go has continued to perform strongly. This will change as the true impact of rising prices really kicks in in the last quarter and takes hold next year. So, while inflation will boost the overall value of the market, volume will, at best, stay the same in 2023.”
She went onto say that the next 18 months will be a challenging period for the sector, as operators attempt to balance rising costs with helping consumers to save money.
Opportunities for retailers
IGD said that, with the focus back on value for at least the next 18 months, retailers are in a strong position. The price point, range and execution of meal deals will become “fiercely competitive”, as they aim to capitalise on the opportunity.
Knight added: “During the pandemic, retailers deprioritised food-to-go space in favour of in-demand categories, leaving them on the competitive back foot as footfall returned and consumers sought a change from homemade meals.
“However, if they can get their price, offer and format right, by 2027 retail could more than regain the share lost to foodservice operators during the pandemic to claim 23.7% of the food-to-go market, compared with 22.9% in 2019 and 20% in 2020/21.”
This story was originally published on a previous version of the Meat Management website and so there may be some missing images and formatting issues.
