The continued influence of tightening livestock supplies was highlighted in an updated Agri Market Outlook for the beef, lamb, dairy and pork sectors.
The analysis from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) pointed to constrained cattle and sheep supply undermining market fundamentals over the coming years, despite “ongoing pressure on consumer demand and wider economic uncertainty”.
For the beef sector, AHDB found that UK production was forecast to drop to 896,000 tonnes in 2027, a decline of 0.8% compared with 2026. It found that increased carcase weights were expected to “only partially offset lower cattle throughputs”.
The sheep outlook pointed to a continuation of tight supply conditions, with UK sheep meat production forecast to decline through 2027 as lower slaughter numbers and a contracting breeding flock reduces domestic breeding supply. AHDB analysis found that production was expected to drop by 2.4% to 262,000 tonnes.
The trade body said that bluetongue had remained a downside risk to sheep production forecasts, with the disease having the potential to affect ewe fertility and future lamb crops. AHDB said that the scale of any impact would depend on disease spread and vaccination uptake, with the updated outlook including a production impact scenario to “reflect this uncertainty”.
Forecasts for the pork and dairy sectors were also updated, predicting that production across both sectors would decline in 2027. AHDB commented that breeding herds in both sectors were declining due to farm profitability challenges, with the war in the Middle East and other factors contributing towards increasing production costs.
Declining production could limit growth, finds AHDB
Beef consumption volumes are expected to “remain constrained” as elevated retail prices impact consumer purchasing decisions, said AHDB, despite robust demand for cattle and tight domestic availability. The body said that historically tight supplies were expected to support cattle prices at elevated levels, although subdued consumer demand and a changing import mix “could limit opportunities for significant further price growth”.
Looking at lamb, demand is expected to remain under pressure from weak consumer confidence due to ongoing cost-of-living challenges, with consumption volumes forecast to fall in both 2026 and 2027. However, strong EU import demand is expected to continue supporting UK exports, said AHDB, although lower domestic production “may limit growth opportunities”.
The outlook suggests that supply tightening across the UK, European Union and Southern Hemisphere will outweigh softer consumer demand, supporting firm GB lamb prices through 2027.
UK pig meat production is forecast to decline by 3.7% in 2027 to around 979,000 tonnes, as a reduction to the female breeding herd and continued pressure on producer margins is expected to limit supply. AHDB highlighted that exports are forecast to decline as less product becomes available for international markets.
The analysis pointed to pig prices strengthening gradually as domestic availability tightens, although wider European market dynamics and rising input costs “may temper improvements in profitability”.
David Swales, head of economics and analysis at AHDB, said: “The outlooks reinforce the increasingly important role of supply in shaping market outcomes, particularly in the beef and lamb sectors. Tight cattle and sheep numbers remain a key feature of the market and are expected to continue underpinning prices over the forecast period.
“While we expect consumer demand to remain under pressure, reduced production in both the UK and key competitor regions is helping to support market fundamentals. At the same time, businesses will need to remain alert to a range of risks, including disease challenges such as bluetongue, changing trade dynamics and ongoing cost pressures.”
AIMS calls for Government to plan ahead for production decline
Tony Goodger, head of communications at the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS), commented: “AHDB’s updated market analysis is timely and very welcome as it will help our members, be they abattoirs or further along the supply chain, to make better informed business decisions for the short and medium term.
“UK beef, lamb and pork production is forecast to decline in 2027 whilst the UK population is likely to continue to grow. If the Government is truly of the view that food security is national security then it is essential that they ensure that every planning application received from every farm, including from the poultry sector, wishing to invest in the country’s economy is passed.”
