Batting away curveballs

Around a year ago, US President Trump was beginning to find his stride, with new announcements of tariffs for imports into the US. At the time, there seemed to be some anxiety about what these tariffs may look like, how far they would go and what the consequences might be. What had been just campaign-trail threats, appeared now to be very real, imminent tariffs coming into force when exporting goods to the US. And agricultural goods – including meat – were no exception to this challenge.

Initial country- and sector-specific duties were compounded by ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on 2nd April 2025. These announcements included a universal baseline tariff of 10% and bespoke ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for each trading partner, which were intended to run concurrently with each other.

Tariffs – or threats, at least – from the US continued throughout 2025. In reporting on tariff threats made in January 2026, the Guardian wrote: “Whatever the ultimate level of tariffs, uncertainty takes its own toll.” The article suggests that new investments tend to be held back when businesses do not know what the policy landscape looks like and warned that “there could be turbulent times ahead” if tariffs are used as weapons or threats.

What has this uncertainty meant for UK meat trade? In the context of other issues facing the industry, what importance does it have? While US trade remained turbulent elsewhere, many US trading partners were able to negotiate and, in some cases, make deals with them that appeared to bring forward some benefit.

An example of this is the UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD), where the UK created a preferential duty-free quota of 13,000 metric tonnes (mt) for US beef and removed the 20% duty on the existing 1,000mt Hilton beef quota. The US reciprocated by reallocating 13,000mt of its ‘Other Countries’ beef quota for exclusive UK use. Now in force, both tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) appear to offer opportunities for meat traders off the back of UK-US negotiations. IMTA also joined the Defra Secretary of State in a recent trade mission to Washington DC to highlight these opportunities.

With continued UK-US talks, potential new opportunities in preferential meat access to the US could be explored. Earlier this year, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) forecasted an expected consumption growth of sheepmeat in the US over the next decade; a possible gap that UK exports could help address.

Additionally, the situation for US trade appears to be frequently changing, seemingly in response to high US consumer prices. In November, the Trump administration announced that beef imports would no longer be subject to reciprocal tariffs, and even created a further 80,000mt quota access for Argentinian beef in February this year. Plus, the Supreme Court’s ruling in late February that Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs had no legal authorisation – and Trump’s immediate response – has shifted the US tariff landscape yet again.

This uncertainty since spring last year highlights the importance of seeking new opportunities in the face of new adversities, to secure UK meat competitiveness overseas and maximise financial returns for UK producers through improved export market access. Furthermore, reliable, diversified meat trade avenues and stronger domestic production are both more important than ever to cater for the UK’s consumer demand and food security.

Trade adversity is not something that is new for meat traders, and 2026 appears to promise more, with possible disruption due to the conflict in Iran. Importantly, it may not be a question of whether UK-US meat trade is better or worse off post-2025. Instead, it may be more pertinent to acknowledge US tariffs are simply another significant curveball that meat traders must navigate. Here at IMTA, we aim to be on hand for our members to be able to do this successfully.