According to Hybu Cig Cymru - Meat Promotion Wales (HCC), increases in beef imports have been positively offset by consumer demand and a “supply squeeze”.
Hybu Cig Cymru - Meat Promotion Wales (HCC) has reported that an export boost along with a “supply squeeze” and “robust” consumer demand have helped positively offset increases in beef imports.
Elizabeth Swancott, HCC senior market intelligence and research and development officer, said: “We are seeing a complex blend of factors influencing the beef marketplace in the first five months of this year. Supply across Europe remains tight; beef imports have increased and UK production is up, meaning more product is available for export.
“In fact, GB beef exports lifted by almost 11%, from 41,900 tonnes in 2023 to 46,300 tonnes in 2024, with May exports up by 20% on year-earlier figures.”
Swancott said that solid consumer positivity coupled with limitations on supply were likely to continue to help prices: “Ireland is our largest beef trading partner. Some 30% of total exports went to Ireland but, of the 99,900 tonnes of beef imported, 77% came from Ireland, representing an 18% Irish product increase year-on-year for the first five months of 2024.”
Irish beef “more competitive” in UK
GB steer deadweight price reportedly strengthened week on week throughout July but Irish beef prices saw a decline, and, as a result, the widening gap between GB and Irish steer deadweight prices made Irish beef more price competitive within the UK.
Swancott said consumer data was showing “strong beef demand” and Kantar reported the volume of beef sold at retail was up 3% on the year (12 weeks to 7th July).
She stated: “This data underlines how HCC’s marketing efforts continue to bear fruit both at home and overseas. For instance, the ’Uniquely Welsh, Naturally Local’ domestic campaign saw awareness of Welsh beef rise by 15% to 80% and propensity to purchase statistics increase by 21%.”
HCC found that while Irish imports into GB were “bolstered” by increased demand from retail, this “inward flow” may not persist much longer due to “impending tightening of supply”.
“Current Irish cattle population data suggests lower numbers of cattle of slaughter age towards the end of 2024 and into 2025,” said Swancott. “This tightening of supply could have an incluence on price and availability for export. In the longer term, Bord Bia forecast that Irish cattle slaughter could fall by 30-40,000 head (-2%) in 2024 for the year as a whole and may begin to influence the market towards the end of 2024 and into 2025.
“The Irish supply position, combined with the tighter EU and UK supply outlooks, and propitious consumer demand, would all suggest favourable undertones for cattle prices in the long term.”
