Despite a likely increase in exports, a combination of higher production from prime cattle and cows and increased imports means that beef supplies in 2016 will be up on last year, the latest AHDB forecast suggests.
“The impact of higher calf registrations over the past couple of years will certainly be felt later this year and into 2017,” AHDB MI senior analyst, Debbie Butcher, said. “Prime cattle slaughterings are forecast to be in the region of 1.96 million head this year and could top two million head next year.”
Butcher added: “On the back of good feed supplies and reduced cereal prices, producers have been encouraged to retain dairy-bred male animals for finishing this year. However, more of these are expected to have been castrated and finished as steers because of the increasing challenges for the young bull trade, a development that looks set to continue.
“Given the bigger dairy herd and the difficulties in the sector, significantly more cows are expected to come forward over the course of the year,” Butcher continued. “In addition, the well-documented profitability challenges that the beef sector has faced for some time are expected to continue, plus falling levels of CAP support could well put pressure on beef cow numbers. Consequently, adult cattle slaughterings this year have been revised up from earlier estimates to 670,000 head.”
The increased slaughterings of both prime and adult cattle are expected to be mitigated by lower carcase weights, with finishers responding to an increased focus on specification from processors and retailers.
Despite this, this year’s beef and veal production is forecast to be up almost 3% on the year, at almost 910,000 tonnes.
With the pound set to remain weaker, export levels are expected to increase this year to account for over 15% of production. UK commodity-type product, in particular, is forecast to compete better on the continent.
This story was originally published on a previous version of the Meat Management website and so there may be some missing images and formatting issues.
