The cost of an average Christmas dinner for four has risen to £32.57, up by 6.5%, largely driven by the price of turkey and Christmas vegetable staples, according to the latest Kantar data.
Supermarket sales are expected to continue growing, exceeding £13 billion over the four weeks of December for the first time ever. Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.5% over the four weeks to 1st December 2024 as shoppers get ready for Christmas, according to the latest data from Kantar.
The cost of an average Christmas dinner for four has risen to £32.57, up by 6.5%, largely driven by the price of turkey and Christmas vegetable staples. Wider grocery price inflation remains relatively stable at 2.6%, with grocers prioritising low pricing over multibuys.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: “Sales on promotion reached 30% in November, the highest since Christmas last year. It’s retailer price cuts, often accessed through loyalty cards, that are really driving this. While multibuy promotions have stayed flat, spending on price cut offers has grown by 14%, worth £355 million more than last year. Shoppers are grabbing the chance to spend that little bit more than usual on Christmas specials, and champagne, wine and spirits saw the biggest levels of buying on deal.”
Retailer market share
Britain’s largest grocer Tesco achieved its highest market share since December 2017 at 28.1%, up from 27.4% in 2023. Its sales grew by 5.2% in the 12 weeks ending 1st December 2024. Sainsbury’s share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.9%, and spending through its tills was 4.7% higher than last year. The UK’s two biggest grocers now have a combined market share of 44%.
McKevitt added: “The number of different retailers we visit in the run up to Christmas is higher than at other times during the year, including wider high street brands like M&S. Just under one in three households, at 32%, bought food, drink and other groceries to have at home from M&S during the 12 weeks to 1st December and looking at grocery sales alone, spending at M&S rose by 10.4%.”
Online retailer Ocado boosted sales by 8.7% over the period, achieving a 1.8% share of the market. It outpaced the total online market which grew by 3.6%, with shoppers spending £4.2 billion on the channel overall across the 12 weeks.
Lidl was the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer, with sales up by 6.6%. Its share climbed 0.3 percentage points to 7.7%. The retailer’s footfall stepped up by nearly 10% in comparison with a year ago.
Spending at Morrisons rose by 2.0%, and it now takes 8.6% of the market. Its average transaction value nudged up by 4.8% over the 12 weeks, helped by strong online sales. This was significantly ahead of the average growth in basket spend across the grocers as a whole, which edged 0.7% higher to £24.51 this period.
Waitrose grew slightly ahead of the market, with spending increasing by 2.6%. It maintains a 4.4% share. Spending at Aldi grew by 2.1%, and the retailer retained 10.3% of the market. Iceland also held its share of 2.2%, and Co-op’s portion of the market is now 5.5%. Asda has a 12.3% market share.
McKevitt continued: “Monday 23rd December is likely to be the single busiest day for the supermarkets this year, although there are clear signs that shoppers are already stocking up their cupboards. The proportion of spending on premium own label products reached 5% over the latest four weeks and we expect it to climb even higher in December to nearly 7%.”
