According to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), Valentine’s Day dinner classics such as beef steaks are predicted to perform well this year.
Looking at 2023 sales, AHDB analysts formed their 2024 predictions for Valentine's Day retail performance and consumer trends.
The data showed that Valentine’s Day 2023 saw the lowest volume performance for the last five years, as shoppers watched their spending due to cost-of-living concerns and average price/kg for meat, fish, and poultry products increased from £6.60 to £7.38 (Kantar 2 w/e 19 Feb 23).
AHDB said that steaks are "synonymous" with Valentine’s Day and are more likely to be eaten during February than any other time of year. Despite this, and despite being priced higher than average, sirloin steak was the only cut to see growth last year. The trade body said this was due to other steak cuts having much steeper price rises and sirloin’s price increasing at the slowest rate at +3.5% compared to +9% for total steak (Kantar 2 w/e 19 Feb 23).
The data also led AHDB to predict uplifts versus an average 2 w/e period, with AHDB suggesting that steaks will be a standout option in many supermarket ‘meal deal’ offers. Sirloins may perform just as well this year, it said, or there may be an uplift in cheaper steaks, such as rump, if shoppers are "looking to indulge" on a tighter budget.
Analysts predict that this year cheese could, like steak, be featured in ‘meal deals’, perhaps as an alternative to a sweet dessert. Last year, cheese did not see uplifts outside of standard promotional activity, meaning it was only cheddar cheese and soft white cheese that performed well during peak Valentine’s shopping periods (Kantar 2 w/e 19 Feb 23). However, AHDB predicted that if supermarkets push cheese promotions outside of everyday staples, it’s cheese could see a stronger performance this year.
Grace Randall, retail insights manager at AHDB, said: “We know that Valentine’s Day is a significant event for retail sales, with the second highest average plate cost, behind Christmas. And with many consumers continuing to feel the pinch of the economic crisis, value and economy tiers are likely to come out on top again this year.
“As Valentine’s Day lands on a weekday this year, we also predict that more people will be celebrating at home, hence supermarket deals such as steak and dessert ‘meal deal’ promotions could be popular.”
This story was originally published on a previous version of the Meat Management website and so there may be some missing images and formatting issues.
