Hybu Cig Cymru - Meat Promotion Wales (HCC) has reported that GB cattle population numbers have seen a year-on-year decline of 2%, with HCC expecting further falls in subsequent years.
As of 1st October 2024, the total cattle and calf population in Great Britain (GB) stood at 7.7 million head - a year-on-year decline of 2%, according to data from the British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) reported by HCC.
Glesni Phillips, HCC’s Intelligence, Analysis & Business Insight executive said: “This represents 163,100 fewer animals, and a further 3% decrease compared to October 2022. Beef cattle numbers fell by 1.8% to 5.0 million head, while the dairy herd contracted by 2.5% to 2.8 million head, continuing a downward trend observed in recent years.”
She explained that by examining cattle categories and age brackets it was possible to gain insights into potential market supply in the short and longer term.
“Supply in the shorter term will be tighter when compared to historical levels.”
Glesni Phillips, HCC
Phillips said: “The population of cattle aged over 30 months stands at 2.8 million head, a decline of 2% from the previous year and 3.5% lower than in 2022.
“Within this category, breeding females over the age of 30 months are an indicator of the breeding herd size - decreased by 2% to 2.7 million head. This reduction was driven by a 4% contraction in the beef breeding herd, while the dairy breeding herd remained stable at 1.4 million head.”
She continued: “Data for beef cattle and dairy males aged 12-30 months give an indication of the potential supply of prime cattle onto the market in the short term. There were 2% fewer animals on the ground when compared to 2023, which suggests that supply in the shorter term will be tighter when compared to historical levels.
“For the longer term, the population of beef cattle and dairy males aged 0-12 months declined by 1.8% to nearly 1.9 million head. This decrease indicates that a lower prime cattle supply is likely to persist further down the line.”
Rise in production also sees rise in prices
HCC found that beef production in October 2024 had achieved a monthly total of 92,000 tonnes - the highest volume recorded since 2012, according to data from Defra. Prime cattle throughput for the period from January to October 2024 reached 1.8 million head, a rise by 5% compared to the same period in 2023.
Phillips said: “Despite this ample supply, deadweight prices have shown an upward trend. In mid-September, the steer deadweight average price in England and Wales reached new record highs of £5/kilo, and prices have maintained this upward trajectory with current prices some 9% higher year-on-year.”
She said that although farmgate prices had risen, these increases have yet to significantly affect consumer prices: “The average retail price of beef was up by just 1.7% year-on-year during the latest 12 weeks to 3rd November 2024. Consumer experts Kantar report relatively stable beef prices at retail have supported demand from consumers during the ongoing cost-of-living ‘crisis’.”
Glesni reported that the trends within the cattle population in Wales largely reflected those seen across GB: “As of 1st October 2024, Wales had 1.1 million cattle, representing 14% of the GB herd and marking a year-on-year decline of 1.5%. The potential supply of prime animals in the short term was down 1% on the year, whilst the potential supply in the longer term was down 2%.”
