Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) has observed that lamb prices have remained above a seasonal low observed in August, despite auction throughput reaching a seasonal high in October.
QMS said its Q4 lamb market update had highlighted firm demand and tight underlying GB supplies as key supports for the trade.
Prices traded in the 320-330p/kg liveweight range during October, nearly 10% above last year and 25-30% higher than the five-year average. By the third week of October, QMS said that prices were just over 30% below the new-season peak but had held up slightly better than has often been the case during the seasonally high period for supplies.
The strength of prices was seen as estimated UK lamb market supply in the first nine months of 2026 was similar to 2025 levels, with higher imports offsetting lower domestic production and a slight uplift in exports, underlining the strength of demand.
Iain Macdonald, QMS market intelligence manager, commented: “Auction numbers have grown in Scotland this autumn, but smaller lamb crops in Scotland and England mean GB supplies remain fundamentally tight.
“Demand is also a key part of the picture. Overall, UK lamb availability was broadly similar to last year in the first nine months of 2026, yet prices have remained substantially higher. Imports have continued to rise despite higher costs, while export volumes dipped in the summer after a strong start, with the domestic market needing that supply as domestic production began to fall back.
“These market forces have also impacted the store trade, where a high level of competition for store lambs is a signal of finisher confidence.
“Looking ahead, marketings are likely to reach a pre-Christmas peak in December, before numbers potentially struggle to match year-earlier levels in early 2027. Tight supplies and firm demand should continue to provide support, although the impact of higher retail prices on sales volumes remains a risk to watch, along with the impact of a stronger pound on export returns.”
Store lamb prices up 15% on the year
Following what QMS called a “sluggish summer”, season-to-date auction sales moved slightly above 2025 levels as throughput built to a peak at Scottish marts in October. However, lamb slaughter at GB abattoirs fell sharply against year-earlier levels between July and September, with a smaller lamb crop and drought-related grazing constraints likely to have combined to slow marketings, QMS found.
Scotland’s June Agricultural Census recorded a 1.6% reduction in the lamb crop despite a second consecutive slight increase in the ewe flock, while England reported a 0.5% decline in lamb numbers. Together, said QMS, these results point to “fundamentally tight” GB supplies this season, with limited scope for a production recovery following the unexpectedly strong 2025/26 season.
The store market provides an indication of confidence among finishers, QMS found. Store lamb prices rose by around 15% year-on-year, outpacing gains in the finished trade and signalling strong competition for stock, as store auction throughput has been slightly lower so far this season.
Lower lamb output contributes to lower export volumes
After a “strong start” to 2026, UK export volumes eased through the summer. Lower domestic output contributed to the slowdown, said QMS, while the pattern also pointed to a “rebalancing of sales towards the home market”.
Meanwhile, strong global lamb markets and production constraints have supported Southern Hemisphere prices, with QMS pointing out that this led to “significant increases in UK import prices” this year. Imports have nevertheless continued to rise, with the trade body stating that this was a further indication of resilient domestic demand.
Lamb numbers to peak over festive period
Lamb numbers are expected to remain seasonally firm in the coming weeks, with a pre-Christmas peak likely in December. Last year’s slow marketing pattern means autumn throughput could continue to look elevated in year-on-year comparisons despite this year’s smaller lamb crop, said QMS, with numbers potentially struggling to match early-2026 levels at the start of 2027.
The trade body said that higher farmgate prices feeding through to retail prices “could put sales volumes under pressure”. However, lamb’s position as a more niche product means demand is generally less price-sensitive than for beef.
Imports are seasonally lower in the final quarter and could struggle to match last year’s volumes as Southern Hemisphere production slows, according to QMS data. Alongside broader global market strength, this is likely to sustain import price inflation.
The Scottish trade body said a tight EU market should “continue to support UK export opportunities”. However, exports have fallen back relative to production since the spring, and tight domestic availability may remain the principal constraint on export activity. A stronger pound could also “squeeze” export returns.
Overall, QMS’s outlook points to continued underlying support from tight supplies and firm demand, tempered by the seasonal increase in marketings, potential consumer price resistance and currency risks for exporters.
