Industry has responded to a Climate Change Committee report that details plans to reduce livestock numbers by 28% by 2035.
Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney set out his Programme for Government for 2025 to 2026, which he said would focus on “growing the economy, eradicating child poverty, tackling the climate emergency and ensuring high-quality and sustainable public services”.
The seventh Climate Change Committee (CCC) report was published, recommending a limit on the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions from 2038 to 2042. As part of the carbon budget, Swinney said it would be delivered through five sectors, with low-carbon farming being one.
In a policy briefing, the Farm Advisory Service estimated the plan would cost £750 million a year for over 25 years. It said it would have “stark implications for agriculture in terms of a reduction in the number of cattle and sheep on Scottish farms and the desire to reduce meat consumption per person per week from 2025 to 2050”.
Focus areas of the report included:
- Adopting low-carbon farming practices and technologies to reduce emissions by 48% by 2035
- Targeting livestock emissions using feed additives, breeding and livestock health measures, and reducing soil emissions
- Decarbonising farm machinery by 23% by 2035
- Reducing livestock numbers to reduce emissions by 48% by 2035
It also said it would improve crop yield, reduce food waste, shift some horticultural production to indoor systems and make nitrous oxide savings from the management of lowland cropland on peat.
“The consumer is more than capable of making informed decisions about what they eat.”
Gordon King, SCB
Gordon King, executive manager of Scottish Craft Butchers (SCB), commented: “We believe that the red meat produced in Scotland is recognised the world over as being the best. It is a product that the world wants to enjoy.
“The consumer is more than capable of making informed decisions about what they eat, the health benefits of eating a balanced nutritional diet are well documented.
“We would always encourage the public to buy better quality meat from local shops. This allows them to buy just what they need and reduce waste. It also allows individuals to have the vitamins and nutrients the body needs for physical and mental growth. Vitamin and nutrient deficiencies are leading to an increase in hospital admissions, so care must be taken to always meet dietary needs.”
A spokesperson for the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) stated: “We are surprised that the First Minister appears to be in favour of reducing global consumer access to the premium product that is Scotch Beef and in doing so ask that he reconsiders the impact that such a reduction will have on the Scottish Rural Economy.”
QMS labels recommendations as “out of touch”
Chair of QMS Kate Rowell commented on the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC’s) carbon budget advice for Scotland: “Scotland’s recommendations from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) are out of touch with our societal needs and grossly undermine the powerful, multi-benefits of agriculture across food security, health, nature and economy.
“Our most serious concern is the CCC’s apparent disregard for the critical role of agriculture in securing a stable food supply. At a time when global demand for nutritious protein is rising year-on-year, it is unacceptable to overlook the food production capability of our Scottish farming sector.
“QMS’s economic modelling to 2030 – based on realistic projections of per capita red meat consumption and production levels – suggests the UK could face a shortfall of 124,000 tonnes of beef. This is a gap we have the capacity to fill domestically, avoiding unnecessary reliance on imports.
“We challenge the CCC’s evidence base, as we believe it is flawed. In fact, Defra’s meat balance sheets – which capture the total volume of meat available for consumption by adjusting production for imports and exports – show that beef supply has increased by 3.4% over the past decade when comparing three-year averages. In 2024, beef supply reached a six-year high. This calls into question whether the consumption trends cited by the CCC truly reflect the full picture.”
“It is illogical and inconsistent with sustainability goals… to allow domestic production to decline and fill the gap with imports.”
Kate Rowell, QMS
Rowell continued: “It is illogical and inconsistent with sustainability goals – including those under the Paris Agreement – to allow domestic production to decline and fill the gap with imports, especially when this penalises Scotland’s highly efficient, lower-emission producers and the rural communities that rely on them.
“Also notably absent is recognition of agriculture’s positive contribution to biodiversity and climate mitigation. Farming has natural carbon capture potential. The CCC must begin recognising the role that farmers play in land stewardship, including carbon sequestration through sustainable land management.
“Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains a clear priority for the red meat supply chain – and we are making progress. QMS, together with AHDB, is developing robust data to help reduce emissions and quantify the net emissions of Scotland’s food and drink production. Our Environmental Baselining pilot, involving 22 Scottish beef, lamb and pig farmers, is already uncovering the real environmental services these farmers provide – both above and below ground – and we look forward to sharing the results later this year.
“We continue to press for long-term, multi-annual agricultural funding to support the sector in delivering public goods – from high-quality food to climate resilience and economic growth. But repurposing this support to shift away from sustainable livestock farming is not the answer. It undermines food security and threatens the viability of a sector that is already world-leading in efficiency and environmental stewardship.
“We will continue to assess the detail of the 29 measures to target livestock emissions along with the policy actions that have been identified for Scottish Government. As the CCC’s advice does not set policy, we will keep close engagement with Scottish Government as it considers the response in the months ahead.”
