Stable long-term outlook for Welsh beef production, says HCC
Long-term stability for beef production in Wales is forecast by trade promotion body HCC despite current inflation issues affecting both farmers and consumers.
The latest market update from Hybu Cig Cymru – Meat Promotion Wales (HCC) is based on cattle consensus data from the British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS). The report claims that steady beef production patterns will resume “barring unforeseen events.”
According to latest figures from BCMS, the total number of cattle and calves on the ground in Britain stood at eight million head as of 1st July 2022, which is an increase of 0.3% on the year, but 0.5% smaller than in July 2020.
Beef cattle numbers recorded an increase of 0.7% to 5.2 million head, whilst the dairy herd contracted by 0.6%. HCC said that this is a “continuation of the trend seen in recent years.”
It added that the “plentiful” supply of cattle aged 12-30 months old is largely destined for beef production and would indicate strong production volumes in the short-term. However, the census figures suggest that the contraction in both the beef and dairy breeding herds, due to increased throughput of older cattle, could act as a “limiting factor on further growth in beef production.”
HCC explained that latest figures from other major beef producing nations such as the USA, suggest that global production is unlikely to rise “markedly” in the short term, thereby giving confidence to Welsh beef producers that global demand will continue to support market prices.
Demand still buoyant
Data analyst Glesni Phillips said that the new BCMS data shows that “there is reason for optimism” that beef production with be in “steady conditions” in the longer term, despite inflation in the wider economy affecting both farmers and consumers.
She added: “High input costs for farmers are also a factor in the projected rise in UK beef production in the short term, as some producers will look to avoid keeping additional stock over this winter.
“However, international demand is still buoyant, with UK beef exports having increased substantially during 2022.
“Production levels in many key competitor countries are not set to rise, therefore trends revealed in this recent data should give long-term confidence to farmers in the beef sector here in Wales.”
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