Hybu Cig Cymru - Meat Promotion Wales (HCC) has revealed that beef deadweight prices have “soared to a new record high”, which it said was fuelled by strong domestic and international demand and a “squeeze” on supply.
HCC found that the £5 per kilo threshold had been breached for the first time, with the England & Wales steer deadweight average hitting 502.8p/kg. This followed a sequence of nine consecutive weeks of prices edging up to current levels, and they now sit almost 30p above year earlier prices and £1.03 above the five-year average.
Elizabeth Swancott, HCC senior market intelligence and research and development officer, said: “A tightening of supply, coupled with strong domestic and global demand, are the main reasons behind the new record high. Both seem likely to continue to support beef prices towards and into 2025.”
At the start of 2024, prices were held around the 490p/kg mark for 11 weeks. HCC reported that prices then dipped below year earlier figures during April, only to recover above year earlier figures in late June before reaching the new high.
UK prices among the strongest globally
According to the EU commission, UK beef prices are currently among the strongest in the world. Figures published on 19th September suggest EU average beef price stands at 499c, which is 104c lower than the current UK figure and over 2.5 times higher than the current price of Brazilian beef.
Swancott continued: “Defra report UK prime cattle supply up 3% on the year, nevertheless beef supply within the global market is tight. Irish cattle slaughtering is predicted to fall by 2% in 2024 and beef production in Europe is set to decrease by 2.3% in 2024.
“Short-term cattle supply across GB is expected to remain relatively stable. BCMS population data as of July 1st suggested the number of cattle aged 12-30 months may be down just 0.3% year-on-year but, looking ahead, the number of cattle in the 0–12-month age bracket is significantly lower, down by 4%, suggesting that future beef supply across GB could be constrained.”
Volume increases as sales rise
She said the market seemed “capable of withstanding some small fluctuations in supply” as the GB figure of 10,230 head of steers coming forward was some 5% above the same period in 2023.
“Yet this increase in beef on the market is not currently putting pressure on retail demand,” Swancott reported. “That is borne out by the latest figures from consumer experts Kantar that show an increase in GB beef sales for the 12-week period ending August 4th, with volume up 3% on the year supporting a 6% increase in total spend.”
HCC said that exports were also performing well. Recently released data by HMRC for the first half of 2024 reveal an 11% uplift for volumes of fresh and frozen beef exported from the UK.
Swancott concluded: “This reflects good global demand, despite the uplift in prices making GB beef less price competitive on the global market.”
