‘Uncertain’ year ahead for pork
As 2019 gets underway, ‘uncertainty’ created by complex diseases and trade issues is looming for pigmeat, according to RaboResearch’s Pork Quarterly Q1 report.
This year is said to be full of potential and uncertainty for global pork supply.
The year will be full of potential for global pork supply, with growth in production and demand in many parts of the world on the cards, however this is overshadowed by rising disease pressures.
“African swine fever (ASF) stands out as the single biggest challenge facing global pork in 2019,” explained Chenjun Pan, senior analyst – Animal Protein.
“The changes ASF will bring create opportunities for some, and threats for others.”
Looking at the EU pork market specifically, the report shows mixed signals entering 2019.
While the expected higher imports by China encourage production expansion, Belgium and Eastern Europe are still shrouded in ASF threats.
Rising piglet prices in recent months signal tight piglet supply, but also strong production intentions.
The report shows that Brexit is another wild card for EU trade, which is expected to play out in Q2 and beyond.
Referring back to disease pressures challenging the global market, they are expected to affect global animal protein in two ways.
Firstly, severe disease outbreaks can lead to local production losses, especially in cases where there is no cure, no vaccine, or limited vaccine stocks for the disease. This impact can last for some time – in the case of ASF in China, infected zones are prohibited from restocking animals for at least six months.
The second area of impact is trade – and this is arguably more significant than production losses. The outbreak of disease brings restrictions on trade from the affected country, in order to manage the risks of the disease spreading.
Click here to download the full report.
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