Falling production to bring challenges for UK sheep market
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has said that the sheep meat sector will be challenged in the second half of 2024 due to falling production and tight budgets impacting consumer demand.
The trade body said that a fall in the lamb crop impacting on slaughter levels of new season lambs is “due to drive a decrease” of 2.9% in total sheep meat production for 2024 compared to 2023.
It also found that despite a “strong start” to 2024, retail and foodservice demand for lamb will “remain pressured by consumer budgets” with consumption set to fall by 1% compared to 2023.
Domestic lamb prices may also be supported for the remainder of 2024, said AHDB, due to an anticipated fall in imports. It said that this would be coupled with “further opportunities” to export UK lamb to the EU.
Isabelle Shohet, AHDB analyst (red meat), said: “We are seeing a drop in prices at the moment due to the supply coming through of new season lambs. We’ve also past the typical peaks of demand for the year like Easter which added strength to prices.
“Moving forward, we are unlikely to see continued strong consumer demand we’ve seen in the first half of the year, and supplies will be higher as the new season lamb crop continues to come forward. However, prices will remain elevated when compared to recent years.”
Lamb exports to remain in decline
AHDB’s key findings in its latest update for lamb include:
- Total sheep meat production is expected to fall by 3% to 278,000 tonnes in 2024
- Retail and foodservice demand for lamb will remain pressured by consumer budgets despite the strong start to 2024, as consumption is set to decline by 1% compared to 2023
- Imports have grown in the first quarter of 2024 but are expected to slow for the remainder of the year
- Exports have seen a slight yearly decline in the first quarter of 2024 and are expected to remain in decline given our falling domestic production.
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