The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has appointed London Economics to undertake an economic impact assessment of a potential African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Great Britain.
The project will be led by John Curnow, former director of analysis and chief economist at Defra, alongside ASF specialist Dr Chris Netherton from The Pirbright Institute.
The assessment will aim to strengthen the pig industry and prepare it for possible future outbreaks, providing an evidence base for engagement with the Government, industry stakeholders and trading partners.
AHDB said that the assessment will build on previous work completed in 2018 and 2020, while “reflecting the changing disease and trade landscape”.
The project will look at the economic impact of an ASF outbreak across the supply chain under a range of scenarios.
Key areas of work include:
- Assessing the impact of an ASF outbreak where regionalisation agreements are not in place
- Comparing outcomes where regionalisation agreements are recognised by trading partners
- Evaluating the differing impacts of outbreaks involving feral wild boar and domestic pigs
- Examining the feasibility, requirements and practical implications of compartmentalisation
- Assessing how compartmentalisation could change the economic impact of an outbreak
AHDB reported that London Economics would deliver the project by developing a scenario-based economic model drawing together production, trade and farm business data with stakeholder engagement across the supply chain.
It also said that the project would map the British pig supply chain in order to understand how the impacts of an outbreak could be felt by producers, processors, exporters and other businesses connected to the sector.
According to the trade body, areas of particular focus will include trade impacts, market access, regional differences, costs associated with disease control measures and the potential consequences for producer incomes and sector resilience.
Project partners will head to Spain in 2027 as part of the assessment in order to look at how Spanish authorities and industry responded to ASF, with insights from the visit to be used to validate and refine the economic modelling.
The final report will be delivered in the first quarter of 2027, with AHDB stating that it will look to “provide the British pork industry with evidence on the potential economic consequences of an ASF outbreak”, while helping to inform future preparedness planning, policy discussions and industry decision making.
