The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) said it expects UK pork production to “remain steady” in 2025.
AHDB said that “limited growth” in breeding herd numbers and “continued pressure” on export markets due to “geopolitical tensions” are also forecast.
However, it also found that a “thriving foodservice sector” and “evolving consumer demand for convenient, affordable cuts of pork” provide opportunities for the industry to navigate challenges in the year ahead.
Freya Shuttleworth, AHDB senior analyst (Livestock), stated: “While the pork market faces challenges such as fluctuating export demand and rising geopolitical uncertainties, we are seeing signs of resilience. The continued growth of the foodservice sector and increasing consumer interest in value-driven cuts of pork offer potential areas for optimism. The industry’s focus must remain on meeting the evolving needs of consumers while maintaining high standards of welfare and sustainability.”
AHDB said that UK pork production is anticipated to “remain stable” in 2025, with clean pig slaughter volumes reaching approximately 10.32 million head, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to 2024.
Average carcase weights are expected to remain at around 90kg, in line with performance from previous years. While the size of the UK breeding herd is forecast to rise by 1% to 330,000 head by June 2025, long-term growth remains limited, with the herd expected to return to 2023 levels by 2027.
Despite these relatively small changes, said AHDB, productivity improvements have been a “driving force” in the sector. AHDB’s quarterly estimated cost of production has seen a slight decrease over the course of 2024, contributing to positive industry sentiment and net margins of £15 per head. However, ongoing uncertainty, including economic challenges and fluctuating costs, continues to impact producer confidence, especially as some producers exit the industry.
Outlook for 2025
AHDB said the outlook for trade in 2025 is mixed, with geopolitical tensions and market volatility continuing to affect UK exports. The EU remains the UK’s most significant trading partner, with more than 99% of UK pig meat imports and over 42% of exports coming from the region. However, it said demand from the EU is expected to decrease as EU consumption weakens.
Despite these challenges, there are brighter prospects in markets such as Southeast Asia, where African Swine Fever (ASF) has impacted local production. The relisting of two UK processing sites for China and the potential for stronger trade ties with countries such as South Korea could help offset weaker demand from traditional markets, highlighted AHDB.
“With increased interest in affordable meal options and a growing foodservice sector, there are significant opportunities to expand pork consumption.”
Vanessa Adamson, AHDB
Retail demand for pig meat is likely to remain under pressure in 2025 due to economic challenges and fluctuating consumer perceptions around the health credentials of pork. However, the continued growth of the foodservice sector, particularly in dining out and on-the-go meal occasions, presents a “valuable opportunity”. Consumers are seeking affordable, convenient meals, with pork well-suited to quick, tasty options such as sandwiches and savoury pastries.
Vanessa Adamson, AHDB retail & consumer insight manager, commented: “As we continue to face economic pressures, promoting the nutritional benefits and versatility of pork will be key in encouraging consumers to incorporate more pork into their meals. With increased interest in affordable meal options and a growing foodservice sector, there are significant opportunities to expand pork consumption, particularly through convenient products like sausages, burgers, and pre-prepared cuts.”
To enhance the outlook for pork consumption in 2025, industry players are urged to focus on communicating the health benefits of pork, such as its rich vitamin and protein content. Additionally, promoting versatile recipes, batch-cooking ideas, and affordable meal options will help capture consumers’ interest. Premium cuts of pork should also be marketed as indulgent, treat-worthy options to appeal to those seeking high-quality, cost-effective dining experiences.
