A red meat analyst told HCC delegates at its recent conference that supply and demand pressures at home and abroad are likely to support Welsh Lamb and Welsh Beef for at least another 12 months.
Hybu Cig Cymru - Meat Promotion Wales (HCC) conference delegates heard from Edward Brown, Gira consultant, about the pressures around Welsh red meat.
Brown said: “On the whole, it’s a positive story at the moment; farmgate prices are really strong and that’s because of the fundamental underlying strong demand when, at the same time, supplies are staying relatively tight. So, from the prices point of view, it’s relatively positive in the short-term outlook.”
Brown stated that in recent years, the global red meat industry had suffered a number of “disrupters”, including ASF, HPAI, Covid, El Nino weather pattern and drought: “In China, for instance, ASF reduced the pig stock by half - and to show the importance of that, China had half of the global pig stock before that happened.”
High quality beef and lamb was in strong global demand, he said, and especially with Welsh Lamb and Welsh Beef’s “most significant” export customer, the European Union.
Brown continued: “This demand is likely to remain because EU production is going to continue to become tighter. Flock data over the past decade suggetss EU contraction - and yes, there is evidence that the same is happening in the UK - but the EU is definitely contracting quicker and it’s facing increasing regulations, such as the EU green deal and CAP reform.
“Yet as the flock continues to contract in the EU - for the first seven to eight months of the year - production was down 3.5% across the EU 27 - their consumers are still showing strong demand for red meat.”
He said the equivalent prices in Europe for heavy lamb were “well above” UK levels and it was the same for beef prices: “Gira’s price forecast covers up to 12 months ahead. The expectation is that beef prices will also remain at a similar level, maybe even slightly higher.
“There are pretty good market prospects if you are a supplier of good quality lamb- like Welsh Lamb - and you’re in a position to highlight the sustainability plusses as well. Traceability is also becoming an increasingly important driver in trade and in the EU, for example, a fully traceable supply chain and its farm assurance position will stand Wales in very good stead.”
Regarding stocking and maintaining critical mass, Brown said: “The threat to the UK is remaining viable within the scale we have got and remaining competitive in a market where there are a lot of external pressures.”
