Indirect and probably only minimal impact of Ukraine – AHDB
Analysis by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has suggested that the conflict in Ukraine should have “minimal” impact on the British meat trade.
While Russia is a large producer of red meat, its trade volumes are moderate in comparison to other nations. Russia mainly exports pork and imports beef, with virtually no trade done with European countries.
According to trade figures from IHS Maritime and Trade, Russia’s pork is exported mostly to Ukraine, Belarus and more recently, Vietnam. Smaller quantities are sent to other Asian countries. Last year, Russia exported 129,200 tonnes of fresh and frozen pork.
In 2021 Russia also imported 214,000 tonnes (product weight) of beef, mostly from Belarus, Paraguay and Brazil. This is slightly less than the quantity imported by the UK (241,300 tonnes in 2021).
Ukraine also mostly trades in beef and pork, but in relatively small volumes when compared to Russia. In 2021, Ukraine imported 40,600 tonnes of pork, which mostly came from the EU (Denmark, Poland, and the Netherlands made up over 80% of total imports).
Beef is mainly exported from Ukraine, with 27,200 tonnes shipped in 2021. Historically this has been sent largely to Belarus, however in recent years China has become the biggest market for Ukrainian beef.
AHDB predicts that the impact of the conflict on trade with the UK is likely to be “indirect and probably only minimal.” This is because the UK does not trade directly with Ukraine or Russia, but does trade with their contacts, the EU and South America. However, AHDB added that it was “nigh impossible” to say for definite what the impact could be.
Possible impacts of the conflict include:
- Ukrainian pork imports are disrupted – product would then need to find a new home. However, AHDB added that the volume in question is only about 1% of total EU pork exports, and so would be unlikely to have much of an impact
- There may be repercussions on the cost of inputs, including feed, fertiliser and fuel
- Beef exports to Russia from South America may be disrupted – this could increase supplies of price-competitive beef looking for a home. The EU is not a major importer of beef, although over 50% of the quantity it does import comes from South America. However, these imports are subject to quotas and tariffs which will limit extra volumes.
Cases of African swine fever reported in Europe
Scientists call out claims made by anti-meat Lancet study
